A “cold war” is a state of political hostility between countries characterized by threats, propaganda, and other measures short of open warfare. Such was the state of affairs between the United States and the Union of Socialists Soviet Republics (USSR) from 1947 to the end of 1989, when the Berlin Wall collapsed and communism crumbled.
Some politicians and historians do not freely admit America and China are presently in a “cold war.” After all, President Biden said that America is, “not seeking a new cold war.” However, the facts are the facts, lets review:
- The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) insists Taiwan belongs to the PRC. The PRC does not recognize Taiwan as an independent sovereign nation (the so called “One China Doctrine”). They are prepared to go to war for reunification;
- China’s massive build up of arms, ships, and other weapons; and
- China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
In addition to the above established facts. We can look at the following issues to further show that the U.S. and China are in a cold war:
- China’s saber rattling toward America’s allies, specifically, Japan, India, Australia, and Taiwan;
- Forging allies with nations that are hostile to America, such as, Russia and Iran; and
- China’s slow economic growth is making China desperate to establish new trade partners, either by force or negotiations.
The Republic of China (ROC) and Taiwan
As a result of the Treaty of Shimonoseki of 1895, Taiwan was placed under Japanese colonial rule. The ROC was officially founded in 1912 and consisted of what is today mainland China. It was not until 1945, after World War II and the Japanese surrender, that the ROC took jurisdiction of Taiwan. After a civil war with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the ROC was forced to relocate to Taiwan in 1949. The CCP branded a new name and acronym for China, calling itself the Peoples Republic of China (PRC). Since 1949, the ROC has jurisdiction over the main island of Taiwan. The PRC has never exercised sovereignty over Taiwan. Thus, Taiwan and China are each under the rule of different governments; sharing a culture, but differing on ideological beliefs.
Since 1949, at least three generations of Chinese have lived in Taiwan. As a result, many people living in Taiwan have clearly identified themselves as Taiwanese and do not consider themselves Chinese. It is a generational gap that the PRC does not wish to continue. In August 2021, 68 percent of the Taiwanese public identified themselves as Taiwanese and not as Chinese. More shockingly, 95 percent wanted to maintain the island’s sovereignty.
Three generations of Chinese have been living in Taiwan. The later generation is identifying with Taiwan as their home, their culture, and their country.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (Pres. Xi) has recently said, “No one should underestimate the Chinese people’s staunch determination, firm will, and strong ability to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity. The historical task of the complete reunification of the motherland must be fulfilled, and will definitely be fulfilled.”A
Military Buildup
In July 2021, Pres. Xi declared that those who get in the way of China ‘s ascent will have their “heads bashed bloody against a Great Wall of steel.”B As history reveals, since 1949, when confronted by a mounting threat to its interests, Beijing does not wait to be attacked. In this Cold War going ‘hot,’ can we conclude that China is sure to shoot first and gain the advantage of surprise? In reading Pres. Xi’s statement, one need not get in China’s way to find out. His intent and mandate are clear.
The CCP has spent $3 trillion over the past three decades building a military that is designed to defeat Chinese neighbors while weakening American military power. For example, China is building warships at a rate which could only be seen as a “Chinese Armanda.” In 2010, the United States possessed 68 more ships than the Chinese Navy. In July 2021, the United States has 63 fewer ships. Statistically, that is a swing of 131 ships in 10 years. In recent years, China has the distinction of possessing the third largest air force in the world. China is also has acquired an extensive ground based conventional force.
All this while China retains viable military options, such as, use of its missiles to incapacitate Taiwan’s air force and U.S. bases on Okinawa in a surprise attack. This could be followed by a successful invasion. Taiwan and the U.S. recognize the threat and are trying not to make this a ‘hot’ war.
Admiral John Aquilino, the Pacific combatant commander, testified in July 2021, that he believes China is prepared to take Taiwan by force in the next six years, “We’ve seen things that I don’t think we expected, and that’s why I continue to talk about a sense of urgency.”C
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
China looks to the BRI as new trades routes, which will give rise to China’s economic and political power. In addition, it will create ideal conditions for China to build a high technology economy. These trade routes, once constructed, will connect China with the rest of the world. What does all this mean, “Belt and Road?” Initially it was two separate projects. Then it was called, “One Belt, One Road.” Finally, it is called the ‘Belt and Road Initiative.’
The Belt is actually the Silk Road Economic ‘Belt.’ It plans to revitalize ancient overland trading routes that connect Europe and Asia. Pres. XI came up with the idea in 2013 when he visited Kazakhstan in central Asia. This is the most important region for the ‘Belt’ element.
The Road is not a road at all. In 2014, Pres. Xi outlined plans to establish a new sea trade infrastructure. These trading routes follow the old Marco Polo routes, considered by the Chinese as a maritime silk road connecting China, Southeast Asia, and Europe.
In order to counter China’s BRI, Pres. Biden launched his Build Back Better World, or B3W, plan during the June 2021 G-7 summit, with the goal of creating “a values-driven, high-standard, and transparent infrastructure partnership” to help finance projects in developing countries.
On November 4, 2021, Pres. Biden used the United Nations Climate Change Conference, held in Glasgow, Scotland, to push the global infrastructure initiative. There is little doubt that he hopes the plan will become an alternative to China’s BRI.
Could This Become a Hot War?
Countries engage in war for many reasons; differences in ideology, land disputes, resources, self-defense, support of an ally and so forth. To be clear, every decision for war is complex, and factors including domestic politics and the personality quirks of individual leaders will figure into the U.S. or China’s choice to make this a ‘hot war.’ The prominent German military theorist Carl von Clausewitz once said war is, “a continuation of politics by other means.”
As we remember from the movie, “Crimson Tide,” everyone has a different view of war and when force should be used.
Endnotes:
A. https://asianpolyglotview.com/2021/11/china-news-xis-declares-taiwan-independence-a-dead-end-in-brutal-warning-world-news.html
B. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/achive/2021/11/us-china-war/620571/
C. https://www.wsj.com/articles/does-the-pentagon-take-china-seriously-11625503914
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